題源經濟學人

今天小編將為大家推薦一篇考研英語的題源，希望能幫助大家。

Shake ’em up, Mr Carney

卡尼，教教他們

How the Bank of England’s new governor (and the chancellor) should stimulate

the British economy

英國央行新行長(還有財政大臣)應該怎樣刺激英國經濟?

Feb 2nd 2013 |From the printedition ON FEBRUARY 7th Mark Carney will appear before theTreasury Select Committee for his first formal grilling from British lawmakers since being named thenext governor of the Bank of England. This will be an important moment. MrCarney, hired away from the Bank of Canada, has recently given hints that hewants to shake up British monetary policy. He has talked about the need tostimulate an inert economy until it reaches “escape velocity”; he

has said thata central bank might need to “tie its hands” by announcing thresholds to bereached before it reduces stimulus; and he has suggested that the level ofnominal GDP—the cash value of output without adjusting for inflation—might be abetter target than inflation alone. This willingness to think afresh isadmirable. But Mr Carney must now connect the dots between his ideas.

英國央行行長卡尼(Mark Carney)將於2 月7 日公開露面，之後會接受財政部特別委員會英國立法委員的正式質詢，這是他被任命為英國央行行長以來的首次質詢，並且十分重要。卡尼是英國從加拿大央行聘請過來的，最近他暗示希望重新調整英國貨幣政策。他談到疲軟的經濟需要刺激一下，直到它達到“逃脱速度”，中央銀行需要“收一收手”，在減弱刺激之前宣佈經濟需要達到的水平。他還間接表示名義GDP(不進行通脹調整的現金產出價值)比起通脹是更好的目標。願意重新思考經濟解決方案令人欽佩，但是卡尼需要把自己的思想聯繫在

一起

At the moment the Bank of England’s mission, set bythe chancellor of the exchequer, is to focus on an inflation target of 2%. Thatmakes sense in normal circumstances. But with short-term interest rates atalmost zero, the economy growing at barely 2% in nominal terms(and not at all if you factor in inflation) and many years of austerity ahead,it is worth temporarily reinterpreting that policy and focusing on nominal suggestion is that the bank, backed by the chancellor, George Osborne,should make clear that it will not tighten policy until nominal GDP, currently £1.5 trillion,gets to a level that is at least 10%higher than today.

目前財政部長給英格蘭銀行設定的目標是將通脹率控制在2%。這在經濟狀況正常的情況下是可行的，但是由於短期利率幾乎為零，經濟增長按名義價值計算只有2%(如果考慮通脹則沒有增長)。央行將在未來一些年內實施財政緊縮，暫時重新解釋貨幣政策和着重於名義GDP 是很有必要的。我們的建議是：英格蘭央行應該在奧斯本財相的支持下要清楚這一點，在名義GDP(目前為1.5 萬億英鎊)基礎上至少10%之前，這項措施不會收緊政策。

When short-term interest rates are as low as they arenow, central bankers can loosen monetary conditions in two ways. They can useunconventional tools, such as “quantitative easing” (printing money to buybonds), to push down interest rates further along the yield curve. And they canguide people’s expectations of the future path of interest rates or a central bank can credibly promise to keep monetary conditions loose evenas the economy recovers and inflation accelerates, it will, in effect, reducethe real level of interest rates today, and so boost the economy.

現在短期利率維持低位，央行行長可以通過兩種方式寬鬆貨幣環境。他們可以使用非常規措施把利率按照收益曲線進一步推低，如“量化寬鬆”(即印鈔票買債券)。另外他們還可以就對未來利率或通脹的走向對人們的期望加以引導。如果央行在經濟復甦和通脹加速的狀況下還能確保貨幣環境良好，那麼這項措施能有效地降低現在的真實利率水平，也能繁榮經濟。

The Bank of England has been willing to useunconventional tools. It was an early pioneerof quantitative easing; its morerecent “funding for lending” scheme for banks is a clever way to bring downbanks’ funding costs (and should be used to hit the nominal GDP target)ritain’s central bank has been less successful at mapping its future policypath. The Bank has interpreted its 2% inflation target in a flexible way,keeping monetary conditions loose even as inflation has stayed higher. But ithas not said how long such flexibility will last. Each time its interest-rate-settingcommittee meets, there is the possibility it will change its mind.

英國央行已經願意使用非常規措施。之前它就是量化寬鬆政策的最早實施者，新近的“融資換貸款計劃(funding for lending)”是降低銀行集資成本的一劑良方(也應該應用到實現名義GDP 上)。但是英國央行沒有很好地規劃自己未來的政策路線。央行對目標通脹2%的解釋比較靈活，保持貨幣環境即使在通脹維持高位情況下依舊寬鬆。但它沒有説這靈活性要持續多久。央行每次開利率會議都有可能改變主意。

That is where the nominal GDP target comes in. By promising to keep monetary conditions loose until nominal GDP has risen by 10%,the Bank would provide certainty that interest rates will stay low even as theeconomy recovers. That will encourage investment and spending. At the same timean explicit target of 10% would set a limit to the looseness,preventingpeople’s expectations for inflation becoming permanently unhinged. It is an approach similar in spirit to the Federal Reserve’s recent commitment not toraise interest rates until America’s unemployment rate falls below 6.5%.

這就是為什麼會使用名義GDP。通過允諾在名義GDP 升至10%之前保持貨幣環境寬鬆，央行保證利率維持在低位，即使經濟恢復。這樣就會鼓勵投資和消費。同時， 10%的明確目標為寬鬆設置上限，防止人們對通脹的期望長久混亂。在本質精神上，這項措施類似於美聯儲(the Federal Reserve)近期承諾提升利率直到美國失業率降至6.5%以下。

This is not a perfect answer. Critics point out thatnominal GDP is hard to measure—and that no one knows exactly how big theshortfall in nominal GDP is, particularly since Britain’s productivity hasplunged since the financial crisis. Against that, a 10% increase is a fairlyconservative and clear target. Adopting it would be better for the Bank’scredibility than repeatedly missing the inflation target.

但這項措施不能完全解決問題。評論指出名義GDP 難以衡量，沒人準確知道名義GDP 差額有多大，尤其是財政危機導致英國生產效率跳水之後。在此背景下，10%的增長相當保守，但目標明確。採取這項增長比不斷錯失通脹目標要有利於央行信譽。

Another worry is that all the growth would comethrough inflation. Sterling would fall, so imports would become pricier. Assetprices might bubble up, though Mr Carney could use other tools to cool them,such as limiting mortgage lending. There is in fact little risk of an unwantedboom. All this will take place as public spending is squeezed and Britain’smain trading partners in the euro zone are likely to be struggling.

再一個擔憂是其它增長都在通脹中發生：英鎊會貶值，因而進口更昂貴，資產價格或許會產生泡沫，儘管卡尼可以使用限制抵押貸款等其它措施為其降温。事實上發生預期外經濟繁榮的風險幾乎不存在。當公共開支受擠壓，英國在歐元區的主要貿易伙伴可能艱難度日時，這一切都會發生。

The last problem is Mr Osborne. A temporarynominal-GDP target needs his explicit should give it, becauseagainst a background of tight fiscal policy, monetary policy is the best macroeconomic lever that Britain has.

最後的問題在於奧斯本(Osborne)，暫時的名義GDP 目標需要他明確支持。他應該支持這個目標，因為在財政緊縮狀況下，貨幣政策是英國最好的宏觀調控槓桿。名義國內生產總值(Nominal GDP)：指的是一國(或地區)一年以內在其境內生產出的全部最終產品和勞務的市場價值總和。GDP，作為國民經濟核算體系的核心指標，是衡量一個國家(或地區)綜合實力的`重要指標，如我們説的經濟要達到8%的增長目標，指的就是國內生產總值，亦即GDP 要比去年增長8%。量化寬鬆(QE：Quantitative Easing)：主要是指中央銀行在實行零利率或近似零利率政策後，通過購買國債等中長期債券，增加基礎貨幣供給，向市場注入大量流動性資金的干預方式，以鼓勵開支和借貸，也被簡化地形容為間接增印鈔票。量化指的是擴大一定數量的貨幣發行，寬鬆即減少銀行的資金壓力。當銀行和金融機構的有價證券被央行收購時，新發行的錢幣便被成功地投入到私有銀行體系。量化寬鬆政策所涉及的政府債券，不僅金額龐大，

而且週期也較長。一般來説，只有在利率等常規工具不再有效的情況下，貨幣當局才會採取

這種極端做法。